Media Predictions of Interest

1. This predictions was made on 5/14/2021 and should come true by 12/31/2021.
"We think the risk of broad labor market scarring is minimal and still expect the unemployment rate to continue to fall to ~4.7% by year end"
Currently: 6.1% - April BLS report; 5.9% - June BLS Report; 4% by December end of year report. This prediction came true.

2. This predictions was made on 4/21/2021 and should come true by 12/31/2021.
"Most housing experts project that mortgage rates will only rise somewhat modestly this year. Interest rates have rebounded from the record lows set at the start of the year, but in recent works they settled around 3%."
Currently: according to Ycharts 30 Year started in April at 2.96% and were up to 3.02% as of July 5th. They ended the year at 3.11 percent. I think a change of .5% - .75% would be considered a modest increase. Thus this prediction did come true since interest rates rose less then the modest range.

3. This predictions was made on 5/16/2021 and should come true by 12/31/2022.
"To flip this trend, Powell and Fed officials say they will not raise interest rates until inflation is on track to compensate for shortfalls and the U.S. reaches maximum employment, something they don't expect until 2022."
Currently: Raising interest rates before 2022 would prove this prediction wrong. The Current Fed Funds Rate is .25%. The fed doesn't specify what it considers to be full employment...but inflation has averaged 1.8% over that past 10 years even if you don't include the latest spike in inflation which leaves little room for further runaway inflation. I expect they will have to act by raising interest rates prior to 2022. As of February 22 no Federal Reserve raising of interest rates. CY21 inflation came in at 4.7% which bumped the 10 year average to 1.88%

4. This predictions was made on 8/9/2021 and should come true by 12/31/2021.
"fenofibrate will have use as COVID-19 therapy"
Currently: Original reports date all the way back to July 2020; how much evidence is needed for this to be a game changer? As of February 2022 no recomendations for using Fenofibrate for COVID-19, this prediction did not come true.